Friday, October 08, 2004

Election Cycle Analysis 101

As a conservative, I can say that I'm not totally satisfied with Bush's presidential performance. His liberal-like domestic spending and his absolutely stupefying position on immigration and border security are platforms that should endear Bush to every die-hard Democrat. But instead of winning the opposition over, Democrats can't wait to get him out of office. I think the reason for this is the new Republican 'big tent' strategy of bigger government, increased spending and socialization is effectively marginalizing the Democrat Party along ideological lines. Result: the extinction of the Democrat Party as we know it is looming. This explains why Kerry is doing so well. It's sure not because the Democrat challenger is a strong candidate. Kerry has no solid message (message? what message?) and he manages to possess the worst, and most liberal, record in the Senate. His veep pick, Edwards, simply has no Senate record (newsflash John: you have to actually show up for work to have a senate record). Kerry's core gain comes from the overwhelming, driving and unifying impulse to make sure Bush isn't re-elected. Meanwhile, the GOP has bent over backwards to alienate it's conservative base. This is not good for Bush, and if he expects to pull off re-election, he needs to start focusing on Kerry's poor senate record. He needs to leverage Republican strengths against Kerry's weaknesses, which isn't too difficult since Kerry is the biggest victim of his own ideology. Take the military for example (who better to judge the mettle of a commander-in-chief?). As of right now, the military favors Bush by 75%. Kerry has spent his entire political career doing everything in his power to impede America's armed forces. Its up to the GOP to exploit that. For Republicans, independents and average Americans, it's no longer a question of putting George Bush back in the White House. Its a question of keeping Kerry out of it.